Housing negative forever?

What a lot of people talked about is that this thing is going down, I told you so and all that. Cool, are we done or do we buy or just keep saying the same things? I told the wife a few days ago after seeing an article on http://www.marketwatch.com/ saying in bright red color that Asia and Europe markets were lower due to US Housing problems. How far have we all come from saying the obvious to a lot of people around the world noticing the same problem? It has been such a relief. It is currently crashing and the foreclosures are mounting every single day. Temecula is a driver commuting nightmare without any decent jobs that support the current housing prices. Remember that you can easily spot fundamentals, ie where home prices should be or what the price any asset should be, but you can never know the psychology of fundamentals from people in a society that will continue to hold an asset price up for as long as possible. Shoot even the NAZDAQ at 5000 took 2 years to collapse from 5000 starting in 2000.
I have predicted that we would see home prices in Temecula at 300k for a small 3 bedroom house for the beginning of this year. I only saw 2 before the end of the year and now there are countless foreclosures at 300-350 with realtors saying to offer 15% less.
We are now changing our position. We are heading down there this summer and renting. I saw last year average rents of a 3 bedroom house ~1600-1800 a month and now have seen them ~1300-1500. We are going to rent down there and sit on the fence longer but I do not advise this to anyone else. If you like the price and have knowledge of everything that has gone on and think it is time then do it. I have realized that no amount of able people buying will help the train wreck from reaching its ultimate destination. We are going to buy 1 acre plus so I can remain living as a hermit and continue to play on my computer (just kidding). We are going to hit the bottom though. No kids, no rush.
I am and always will be bullish on housing long term. It is not all bad. Yes if you buy now or if you bought in 2005 the housing market will reach that price again (unless you are 55+) then it could be a gamble. When everyone is on the bandwagon, you are off. When everyone is off, you are on. I am extremely glad that lost souls still think that housing is still going up because it makes me feel sounder on my position. Once there is blood in streets and people think that real estate would be a bad buy forever, then we will buy. I believe that we will never see a run up like this again. After the mess this market will leave behind there will be so many regulations on loans and laws about down payments that it will strain the market for many many years to come. The only thing that will make prices go up from the bottom will be inflation (isn’t gold and other things a better hedge?). I sold all gold at 660 btw. I’m not a gold bug and wanted to put it in less risk (except a few thousand on CFC).
The true reason for the previous site going down was the negativity. I was at Loma Linda Hospital every day seeing kids with mask on that had cancer and other things. You actually become a very negative bastard after smiling at others pain. After being around so much negativity and after an email from a debtor that was shocked about a post I made on the site, I knew it was time to take it down. The are many more bloggers to take up the slack anyways. Don’t get into the mentality on never buying a place. It is better to own than renting (just not now). This thing will not play out all negative either. People will always jump in and buy, but it will slowly dredge downward (like our current stock market). For anyone that does not own make sure to save up, enjoy life, and do not look at the market every day. You will get immune to high prices and you start seeing a mirage of decent deals in price drops and foreclosures. They are not decent deals but they sure are better than what we had in mid 2005. I wish everyone the best of luck and will check in once my CFC short comes in more (I like to gloat sometimes). Check out the latest video I made and I wish everyone the best of luck in your future endeavors.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6897935140271687860

Top investor sees U.S. property crash

By Elif Kaban
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets.
"You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York.

"It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops.
"It is going to be a huge mess," said Rogers, who has put his $15 million (8 million pound) belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia.
Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most.
Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown.
"Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history," Rogers said
"When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burnt."
The fund manager, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with billionaire investor George Soros in the 1970s and has focused on commodities since 1998, said the crisis would spread to emerging markets which he said now faced a prolonged bear run.
"When you have a financial crisis, it reverberates in other financial markets, especially in those with speculative excess," he said.
"Right now, there is huge speculative excess in emerging markets around the world. There will be a lot of money coming out of emerging markets.
"I've sold out of emerging markets except for China," said Rogers, long a prominent China bull.
Even in China, the world's fastest expanding economy, Rogers said stocks were overvalued and could go down 30-40 percent.
But he added: "China is one of the few countries in the world where I'm willing to sit out a 30-40 percent decline."
The last stock market bubble to burst was the dot-com craze which sparked a crash from March 2000 to October 2002.
When the last bubble burst in Japan, said Rogers, stock prices went down 85 percent despite the country's high savings rate and huge balance of bayment surplus.
"This is the end of the liquidity party," said Rogers. "Some emerging markets will go down 80 percent, some will go down 50 percent. Some will most probably collapse."

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=managerMoves&storyID=2007-03-15T074443Z_01_ZWE468140_RTRUKOC_0_MARKETS-ROGERS.xml&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-ArticlePage2

Chistopher Thornberg was right

Good old Chistopher only said this 1 YEAR AGO! Remove the credit and snap your fingers at how fast this thing comes down. Subprime is the modern day S&L. I took that photo of the fallen New Century on 3-15-07.

Let the housing crash really start..

You may know me as forsakencraft.com. I used the host for a business
since it will make money instead of not doing very much before. I have
been around watching this market crash since 2005 and sold all my properties in
late 05-early 06. If anyone is shocked by the bad news then you need to
get a gun and shoot yourself. The big part of the crash is now under way.
I read on broker's outpost a mortgage broker say, "how the hell am I going to get my
customers to put down 10% now?". Wait till they have to put down 20%....

If you can't borrow very much, if you can't put down very much, then you
CAN'T BID VERY MUCH, and people CAN'T sell for very much! How long does it
take idiot retard sheeple to understand that?

All you have to do is listen to MSM stupid asses on the housing crash
speak about a "bottom" and apply the opposite. These guys have been dead
ass wrong for years. We have been right.

I have seen posters on blogs talk about home debtors getting bailed out with
our tax dollars and now that's in Congress. Everyone I have seen in the
"bubble blog" community has the insight of 6 months on this crash.

I will post what I wrote about the stock market on
10-05-06:

The stock market right now is for day
traders. Anyone going long on stocks might as well go to Vegas and bet it all
on black (or green). So we had housing which has fueled our economy since the
dot com bust. If a bull says housing hasn’t done that much for our economy
then they are crazy, ignorant, or in denial. So for the long term we lost a
large part of our housing sector but they are still building at 2003 levels
which is helping to maintain some jobs but they are building homes they cannot
sell. If you think otherwise then you need to check the new home builder’s
inventories along with the Wells Fargo Index.

• You have seen housing take a steep dive so more jobs
  are going to be added from here?


• You see HELOC’s and 2nds down, so we are going to
  consume more to feed the economy?


• For the long term how is this the BEST economy EVER to
  hold any record highs?


• If you say job growth, are you thinking about the
  wages these jobs carry?

In the end the bulls come without any statistical data
nor do they carry any view for a better economy for the long run. Now even
helicopter Ben has said that the housing will knock 1% off GDP putting us
were? 4% GDP? hahahahahah

And good old helicopter Ben hasn’t taken into account on
the consumption side of housing.

So if you want to bash bears, come with more than lower
gas prices because adjustable rate mortgages will bash that amount 100 times
fold when we see the 1.5 trillion in resets coming in 07.

All I see from bulls are postings like:

1. Gas is coming down we are SAVED!

2. Somewhere will pick up job losses from the housing
market or better yet, what job loss? (day trader thinking)

3. We will keep building homes and consume off them till
the end of the decade because David Lereah said so last year.

The last paragraph shows how silly anyone is if they are
going long on stocks.

John xxxx

10-5-06

February 27th 07 DJIA dove 431 points (~$630 billion off
our market in 1 day)

Today March 13th 2007 DJIA dove 242.66 (we are down to the
low of Feb 27th now)

Yes sir, it is time for all the loose bubble money to get
eaten up.

So now you will see swing but you would be dead ass right
to see if trend lower and lower and lower.

Housing market=lower and lower and lower. How far?
YOU WILL SEE 01-02 prices for sure.

Look for in the next 6 months:

• More lenders going out of business
• News of construction and real estate jobs going out along
  with companies going out of buisness such as furniture makers, cabinet makers,
  real estate offices, and just about any business that is tied soly to
  residential real estate
• Recession.... Negative GDP is a comin people.
• Real Estate fraud worse seen in history

• Record foreclosures that USA has ever seen (2008)