Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Housing negative forever?

What a lot of people talked about is that this thing is going down, I told you so and all that. Cool, are we done or do we buy or just keep saying the same things? I told the wife a few days ago after seeing an article on http://www.marketwatch.com/ saying in bright red color that Asia and Europe markets were lower due to US Housing problems. How far have we all come from saying the obvious to a lot of people around the world noticing the same problem? It has been such a relief. It is currently crashing and the foreclosures are mounting every single day. Temecula is a driver commuting nightmare without any decent jobs that support the current housing prices. Remember that you can easily spot fundamentals, ie where home prices should be or what the price any asset should be, but you can never know the psychology of fundamentals from people in a society that will continue to hold an asset price up for as long as possible. Shoot even the NAZDAQ at 5000 took 2 years to collapse from 5000 starting in 2000.
I have predicted that we would see home prices in Temecula at 300k for a small 3 bedroom house for the beginning of this year. I only saw 2 before the end of the year and now there are countless foreclosures at 300-350 with realtors saying to offer 15% less.
We are now changing our position. We are heading down there this summer and renting. I saw last year average rents of a 3 bedroom house ~1600-1800 a month and now have seen them ~1300-1500. We are going to rent down there and sit on the fence longer but I do not advise this to anyone else. If you like the price and have knowledge of everything that has gone on and think it is time then do it. I have realized that no amount of able people buying will help the train wreck from reaching its ultimate destination. We are going to buy 1 acre plus so I can remain living as a hermit and continue to play on my computer (just kidding). We are going to hit the bottom though. No kids, no rush.
I am and always will be bullish on housing long term. It is not all bad. Yes if you buy now or if you bought in 2005 the housing market will reach that price again (unless you are 55+) then it could be a gamble. When everyone is on the bandwagon, you are off. When everyone is off, you are on. I am extremely glad that lost souls still think that housing is still going up because it makes me feel sounder on my position. Once there is blood in streets and people think that real estate would be a bad buy forever, then we will buy. I believe that we will never see a run up like this again. After the mess this market will leave behind there will be so many regulations on loans and laws about down payments that it will strain the market for many many years to come. The only thing that will make prices go up from the bottom will be inflation (isn’t gold and other things a better hedge?). I sold all gold at 660 btw. I’m not a gold bug and wanted to put it in less risk (except a few thousand on CFC).
The true reason for the previous site going down was the negativity. I was at Loma Linda Hospital every day seeing kids with mask on that had cancer and other things. You actually become a very negative bastard after smiling at others pain. After being around so much negativity and after an email from a debtor that was shocked about a post I made on the site, I knew it was time to take it down. The are many more bloggers to take up the slack anyways. Don’t get into the mentality on never buying a place. It is better to own than renting (just not now). This thing will not play out all negative either. People will always jump in and buy, but it will slowly dredge downward (like our current stock market). For anyone that does not own make sure to save up, enjoy life, and do not look at the market every day. You will get immune to high prices and you start seeing a mirage of decent deals in price drops and foreclosures. They are not decent deals but they sure are better than what we had in mid 2005. I wish everyone the best of luck and will check in once my CFC short comes in more (I like to gloat sometimes). Check out the latest video I made and I wish everyone the best of luck in your future endeavors.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6897935140271687860

1 comment:

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